The dark satanic rumour mill has manufactured a hell on earth yarn saying that while MediaTek had been banking on fat orders from Google and Meta to fuel its ambitions, the tide has shifted.

Meta’s next-generation AI silicon, codenamed “Arke”, is being lined up for Broadcom and Marvell instead. Google’s project, once seen as another feather in MediaTek’s cap, has been repeatedly kicked down the road.

Industry insiders reckon Arke, a 2nm inference ASIC built with a focus on cost-effectiveness, should have been a perfect fit for MediaTek. Instead, Meta appears to be flirting more seriously with US rivals, which have stronger existing ties to hyperscalers.

The Google deal has slipped again. Tape-out has been delayed until at least October, with mass production potentially moving beyond the originally promised second half of 2026. For a project that was supposed to underpin MediaTek’s ASIC credibility, that’s not encouraging.

The supply chain says Google has been steadily ramping up its ASIC investment over the past few years, and it remains a plum prize for chip design outfits. If MediaTek can finalise and verify its designs properly, there is still a chance to secure long-term contracts.

In the meantime, the uncertainty has fed caution, with analysts grumbling that MediaTek’s lofty growth targets for 2026–2027 might be more wishful thinking than reality.

Competition from Broadcom and Marvell is heating up, project schedules are slipping, and market sentiment is sliding into wait-and-see mode. What was once a big opportunity for MediaTek now looks more like a gamble.